MSNBC. 2021 will reinforce the notion that digital technologies are the main battleground for geopolitical dominance. 08-01-2021. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. The risk is highest in countries which have experienced significant outbreaks of the virus, and where governments have implemented sweeping reforms to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic or cannot offset the fallout with substantial stimulus packages. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. This year's report is available here. Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies … EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. RISK REPORT 2021. Militants have also significantly stepped up raids targeting islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado and, in November 2020, seized seven sailboats transporting food supplies from Pemba, demonstrating their growing maritime strategy and capabilities. Versus the euro, the rouble was steady at 90.23 EURRUBTN=MCX.. For an optimal experience visit … Early general elections planned for 6 June are likely to reignite civil unrest. Tehran-backed militia groups are also likely to continue abducting and assassinating anti-government activists, which may prompt retaliatory attacks on Iranian diplomatic missions and businesses. Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. London signed a trade deal with the EU on 24 December and ended its withdrawal period on 1 January. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Scottish fishermen have already halted exports to the EU over criticisms of the new requirement for health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork which add days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds in costs. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. When he became president in 2018, Diaz-Canel promised to introduce reforms while maintaining the country’s communist system. Of course, this list was compiled before we knew that the world would be confronted by its worst pandemic in a century, but as you can see, our forecasts for geopolitical risk in 2020 were nevertheless quite accurate: As we can see, many of our forecasts for the biggest geopolitical threats in 2020 came to fruition, even amid the disruptions caused over the course of the year by the impact of the pandemic. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: The US-Chinese Cold War: Relations between the world’s two superpowers have fallen to their lowest level in decades. But given the various competing global and regional challenges, Pyongyang would have to carry out a major provocation to successfully employ those tactics this year. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. Before we look at the ten leading geopolitical risk levels for the coming year, it is interesting to look back at what we believed would be the ten biggest geopolitical risks of 2020. Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events. no. Resource nationalism surges in 2020, Covid-19 worsens outlook. There is an increased risk of civil unrest following the divisive November 2020 presidential election. As the world struggles to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis – which has arguably been the most economically disruptive event since World War II – domestic and international politics will see major transformations. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. Militants could carry out road ambushes and kidnappings targeting employees near mining sites in southern and western Mali in order to deter further foreign investment. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. Diaz-Canel’s election suggests the influence of the reformist wing of the party is growing. The risk of military conflict over Taiwan continues to grow, while Chinese foreign policy will become more aggressive. As we settle into 2021, PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for the coming year. Something is different in the geopolitical situation today. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. However, the effectiveness of such efforts is likely to be limited, as groups such as QAnon and Proud Boys may just move to alternative platforms. Mass protests triggered by a rise in subway fares erupted in October 2019, but quickly developed into wider unrest over long-term socioeconomic grievances. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks. Required fields. Negotiations could take several months and harm investor confidence. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. Travellers in coastal cities are at an increased risk of being targeted by militants at hotels and other venues frequented by foreigners. 11 March 2021. The prime minister has faced rebellion from members of his coalition, resulting in the resignation of important ministers. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. In 2020, several cities saw Sadrist militiamen raiding protest camps and shooting protesters. A change in the country’s top leadership in April increases the potential for political and economic reforms in the year ahead. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … … “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. There is an elevated risk of civil unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Peru in the year ahead due to upcoming national elections. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. The disparate rebel alliance will likely disintegrate in the coming months, leading to increased inter-rebel clashes as groups compete for control of territory outside of Bangui. The reasons are probably a combination of factors that include the pandemic, the rise of the global grid of cyberspace, plus the payoff of years of planning and strategic moves by our adversaries. The risks posed by North Korea’s weapons programme are likely to persist in 2021. This indicates that not only is the level of geopolitical risk dangerously high, but that the pandemic is likely to have actually increased the threat posed by a number of these issues and flashpoints, while at the same time creating new threats to global stability and security. If the UK lowers tax rates and diverges from EU regulations, which is more likely in the second half of the year, the business climate could become more appealing to investors. Political violence in Mali increased in intensity throughout 2020, which is a trend that will likely continue this year. Crude Oil Prices Choppy, Rising Geopolitical Risks to Spark Oil Volatility 2021-04-07 10:30:00 Justin McQueen , Analyst Crude Oil Price Analysis & News Top Risks 2021. For an optimal experience visit … Advanced Search. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. The ceasefire resulted in Armenia ceding much of NK, including the region’s second largest city of Shusha, and surrounding districts to Azerbaijan. The election-related unrest is expected to spark a harsh response from security forces and government-aligned militias. A coalition of six rebel groups loosely affiliated with former president Francois Bozizé threatened to march on the capital Bangui after Bozizé was barred from standing in the election. One factor behind the escalation in violence is the internecine war between JNIM and ISGS. Uncertainty around sectors of the UK economy could stifle investment. Confirmed cases and associated deaths are still rising in many countries, notably in Europe and North America, which is a trend that is unlikely to subside substantially in the first quarter of 2021. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … 1. However, there is a high risk of further disruption along the main trade routes into Bangui, which could lead to shortages of foodstuffs and other necessities in the capital. Risk 1: 46*. Contact us to discuss how we can help: riskanalysis@pgitl.com, If you have any questions about our services or would like to learn more about our consultants here at PGI, please get in touch with us and speak with one of the team, call us on +44 (0)845 600 4403 or email us at sales@pgitl.com, +44 (0) 845 600 4403 PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT. There’s no single factor that raises the risk of a major disaster in cyberspace in … Even without the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical risk levels would likely be at uncomfortable levels due to the myriad of internal and external tensions and flashpoints that have proliferated around the globe in recent years. Protests declined in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but returned as restrictions were lifted. There is a risk of increased civil unrest in the year ahead following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agreement to a 9 November ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region. North Korea’s relations with the US and South Korea have been strained due to a prolonged impasse in talks over Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programme. The Asia Risk Awards return in 2021 to recognise best practice in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region. However, the pandemic has added another dimension to many of these flashpoints and has dramatically raised tensions in many parts of the world. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. 21-01-2021. The government controls as little as 20 percent of the country and, as a result, will likely remain powerless to impose its will outside of Bangui. Lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions will have a negative impact on global growth rates for at least the first half of 2021. The UK and EU are likely to form another agreement over services in the year ahead, though it is unclear what its terms will be and how they will affect the UK economy. Iran is likely to continue using Yemen’s Houthi rebels to target tankers, ports and other energy infrastructure within Saudi territory and maritime boundaries. Government forces have been bolstered by the arrival of troops, military instructors and equipment from Rwanda and Russia, and – with support from 12,800 UN peacekeepers in the country – will likely be able to thwart any attempts to capture Bangui. The longer it takes the Biden administration to put together a North Korea engagement strategy following his inauguration, the higher the possibility of an attention-grabbing missile launch or nuclear test. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. The UK’s trade deal with the EU will pose new regulatory challenges to UK trade. These grievances were previously highlighted when authorities stopped paying public sector wages due to an economic crisis caused by low oil prices and financial mismanagement. On 28 December, militants attacked Monjane town, just 5 km from the facility, forcing the energy company to evacuate staff. Risk 3: Climate: net zero meets G-Zero. As a result, geopolitical risk levels entering 2021 are as high as they have been since any time over the past ten to fifteen years, a less-than-welcome development for a world that is struggling to overcome the dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increased militant activity in the wider Sahel region has also led to warnings of a heightened risk to foreign nationals in West African coastal cities, such as Accra, Abidjan and Dakar. But governing won’t be … The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. The militants also continued to encroach on Palma town, which was likely an effort to cut off Total’s Afungi LNG facility. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Thus, growing tensions between China and the US will increase the risk of miscalculation and drive bilateral relations to new lows. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. Ecuador experienced mass protests over unpopular gasoline subsidy cuts in October 2019, and the country’s 7 February general election could reignite social tensions stemming from the issue. Each side has been unable to agree upon what denuclearisation by Pyongyang entails or over whether North Korean denuclearisation or sanctions relief by the US and South Korea should come first. The insurgency poses a considerable risk to Mozambique’s ambition to become a major energy producer, with the Total-operated project likely to be delayed due to deteriorating security conditions around Palma. The clashes between government forces and the rebel coalition brings the February 2019 Khartoum peace agreement back to square one. The key discussion topics of the event will be: The increased tensions imply an elevated risk for energy and maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Archishman is a second-year BA International Relations student. In the Americas, the Brazilian heads of the army, navy, and air force jointly announced their resignations in a move that will increase pressure on President Jair Bolsanaro. In late December 2020 to early January 2021, JNIM killed five French soldiers in two separate IED attacks in Mali’s Menaka and Mopti regions. Add to this the fact that the Covid-19 pandemic will still be with us in 2021, and the fact that the economic fallout from the pandemic will continue to be felt in the coming year, and it is easy to see how this could be a year in which geopolitical risk levels rise even further. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. 07967865, PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT, - PCI DSS Consulting and Compliance Services, - Investigations and corporate intelligence, Cyber security and Intelligence careers at PGI. 6 April 2021. Control Risks 2021 Geopolitical Calendar. In response to this, we discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions … Opposition parties will likely exploit anti-government sentiment to gain support and organise protests. PGI's Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for 2021. Militants expanded their geographical reach and operational capabilities in 2020, suggesting a prolonged conflict is likely this year. Reforms would likely be supported by the incoming US administration of Joe Biden, who has previously said he intends to reverse the Trump administration’s hard-line policies towards Cuba. The geopolitical premium paid for the rouble remains significant. - Intelligence. Particularly in the first half of 2021, as businesses adapt to the new regulations, trade could suffer from added costs and delays. President Sebastian Piñera responded by holding a referendum on whether to change the constitution, which was approved by voters. Militants will continue to attempt to seize key settlements and sustain attacks on civilians and security forces. Discontent over the details of the ceasefire could allow opposition parties to reshape their image and mount a stronger threat to Pashinyan. In an unprecedented demonstration of dissent, over 300 people rallied outside the Ministry of Culture on 27 November 2020 to protest the eviction of dissidents belonging to the San Isidro Movement, highlighting Cubans’ increasing willingness to organise public protests and demand greater freedoms. Armenia has suffered from high unemployment and a weak economy in recent years. Low or negative growth and government stimulus packages will increase debt burdens substantially, putting pressure on countries to cut public spending, especially in emerging markets. It is little surprise that, following one of the most chaotic years in recent history, geopolitical risk levels entering the year 2021 are dangerously high. Despite the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to have a profound impact on public health worldwide. geopolitical tensions—will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other key threats of the next decade: cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change. Keeping track of what’s happening around the world can be a complex task, so if you need support we can help. Opposition parties lack widespread support because of their association with the unpopular former government of Serzh Sarkisian, which used lethal force to suppress dissent and was allegedly involved in the embezzlement of state funds. The recently published 2021 Geostrategic Outlook presents analysis on the global political risk environment in 2021, with geopolitics of COVID-19 as the top risk. Email me. As the year progresses, developed countries may struggle to meet vaccination timelines, while many developing countries could struggle to procure and administer enough vaccines due to insufficient financial resources and poor healthcare infrastructure. Last year marked the deadliest year on record in Mali, with Islamist militant groups stepping up attacks against local and foreign security forces and civilians. His position as a strong advocate for allowing internet access in Cuba also suggests the country may embrace a more moderate direction. If Correa’s preferred candidate, Andres Arauz, fails to win the presidency, or if the result is disputed, unrest among his supporters is likely to be high. Peru’s 26 January legislative elections and 11 April presidential election are potential flashpoints for civil unrest following the controversial removal of the former president. The administration of former US President Donald Trump has used sanctions, tariffs, and blacklists to target Beijing and its commercial interests. Subsequently, the government accused Bozizé of orchestrating a coup. The webinar was held January 26 2021. Meanwhile, travel bans and enhanced checks at ports and border crossings will continue to disrupt trade and global supply chains. There is also a potential risk of unrest expanding to Kurdistan. The withdrawal agreement does not address services, which comprise 80 percent of the UK economy. North Korea has previously relied on weapons tests to garner international attention and force negotiations with major powers, particularly the US. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. GEOPOLITICAL AND CYBERSECURITY RISK WEEKLY BRIEF 6 APRIL 2021. Chile’s November presidential election, and election of a body to draft a new constitution, could reignite mass protests this year. The election will likely reignite tensions over the impeachment, particularly if it brings victory for Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of the imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori who is herself being investigated for corruption. Any tests or launches would increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which may lead to limited interstate conflict. Furthermore, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest if reforms fail to keep pace with Cubans’ aspirations. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world in 2021. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. Protests are likely to be violently suppressed by security forces and pro-government militias. In August, the group occupied Mocimboa da Praia, subsequently using the strategically important port town as a base from which to expand operations. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. In the absence of effective dialogue mechanisms, intensifying friction in bilateral relations has wide-ranging implications for the Indo-Pacific region. The key discussion topics of the event will be: This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. ... 2021. - Geopolitical Risk Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. The ISA International Market Potential Calculator, « The Six Main Issues Confronting President-Elect Biden. However, the rebel coalition may attempt to blockade Bangui, which would further undermine Touadera’s authority, increase food and resource insecurity, and bolster rebel group activity in areas outside of government control. Licensed for reuse. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Political risk is creating both challenges and opportunities for organisations. OVERVIEW At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world's industrial democracies. View Analysis. China stocks retreated from a four-week high as trading resumes after a one-day pause for holiday. The pandemic will continue to cause severe economic disruption. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. The Political Risk Outlook 2021 contains expert research and analysis from senior members of our Country Risk Intelligence team, exploring the key global issues and country-level risks impacting multinational companies and investors today. The fallout from Trump’s impeachment and other potential legal proceedings will likely further exacerbate tensions. © 2021 PGI - Protection Group International Ltd. All rights reserved. Protesters have denounced Pashinyan as a traitor and demanded his resignation. In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), Potential reforms will, however, likely face internal resistance from the traditional wing of the party. Trade operations with the EU, as well as between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will require more paperwork, which could overburden local businesses and damage commerce. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. Bilateral tensions are likely to move further from economic to security issues in 2021, with the main flashpoints being human rights concerns, the South China Sea and Taiwan. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. PGI - Protection Group International Ltd is registered in England & Wales, reg. On 19 April, Raul Castro will step down as the Communist Party’s First Secretary to make way for President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who will become the first person outside the Castro family to preside over Cuba in over 60 years. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. Fasten your seatbelts, investors: Global threats to digital privacy, security, and freedom of expression and information are on the rise. The series of unilateral actions will make it difficult for President Joe Biden to significantly change the downward trajectory of relations between China and the US. Last year's report branded 2020 as a negative tipping point —globalization changing its trajectory towards a US-China economic … Pashinyan has replaced resigned ministers with long-standing political allies and is likely to continue to do so in the coming months. JANUARY: FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER UNCONFIRMED January. The threat posed by political violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has increased in the wake of the presidential election in December 2020. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. The North Korean leader’s comments are likely an effort to put pressure on the incoming US administration of Joe Biden to engage with Pyongyang.
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