However, there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities. When and under what conditions (health, economic, political) will a reopening be considered—without engendering too much risk? In a scenario where the EU27 proceeds as today but where certain Member States want to do more in common, one or several “coalitions of the willing” emerge to work together in specific policy areas. In a scenario where there is consensus that neither the EU27 as it is, nor European countries on their own, are well-equipped enough to face the challenges of the day, Member States decide to share more power, resources and decision-making across the board. This new flagship report provides an overview of developments in industrial relations and social dialogue in the years immediately prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. Two factors are set to have a decisive influence. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden? In a scenario where the EU27 sticks to its course, it focuses on implementing and upgrading its current reform agenda. Filed Under: Economy Tagged With: coronavirus. It’s time for a care revolution! There are four possible scenarios. It took us a global pandemic to realise that we depend on care. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law are strengthened in areas where we choose to do more and reduced elsewhere. This may widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels. There are many different possible ways of developing scenarios. The European Commission has outlined five scenarios for the future of the European Union in a white paper obtained by POLITICO ahead of its publication on Wednesday. Future scenarios as a tool to understand the future of Europe and discover common ground. The European Union Focuses on delivering its positive reform agenda. Reminiscent of the Belle Époque, this would be nothing less than an end-of-the-world party. This includes a strong common research and industrial base, joint procurement, more integrated capabilities and enhanced military readiness for joint missions abroad. This working paper identifies some key areas of policy intervention for advancing socially sustainable and fair solutions for freelancers working in the creative industries, who are among those who have suffered the most from the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. The relevant unit becomes the national territory—with social control ramped up with the help of 5G networks. New legislation providing for enhanced inspection on health and safety, together with a ban on contract work and limitations on the use of temporary agency employees, holds out the prospect of a profound change in employment practices and labour relations in the meat industry. To construct the scenarios, the two factors that are considered most sensitive for the future were taken into account. The EU27 continues to lead the global fight against climate change and strengthens its role as the world’s largest humanitarian and development aid donor. The unity of the EU27 is preserved but may still be tested in the event of major disputes. Priorities are regularly updated, problems are tackled as they arise and new legislation is rolled out accordingly. Findings are placed in the context of the key developments in EU policy affecting employment, working conditions and social policy, and linked to the work done by social partners—as well as public authorities—at European and national levels. The stakes are high both politically and economically for Europe and the EU’s future is very uncertain. Civil society in the EU: future scenarios for 2030. Here again, the example of the US under Donald Trump, above all with the possibility of a second term, is telling. As for the EU’s external borders, the example of China suggests strict ‘cocooning’ of the national territory vis-à-vis the outside world, having overcome the internal health crisis, is set to be the norm. RE No. With a pandemic raging, for those countries most affected by Brexit the end of the transition could not come at a worse time. Rare2030 policy scenarios With the information collected through the knowledge base and trends identified through the Rare2030 Foresight study, the Panel of Experts put together four possible future scenarios depicting what the world may be like for people living with a rare disease in 2030. And should consumption not really pick up again, calls for recovery would give new impetus to demands for less account to be taken of environmental concerns and for greater labour-market ‘flexibility’ at the expense of workers. There is also a need to re-establish the previously high level of collective-bargaining coverage in the industry, underpinned by an industry-wide collective agreement extended by law to cover the entire sector. The Commission presented five different scenarios for the future of the EU. These may cover policies such as defence, internal security, taxation or social matters. Cooperation in security matters is routine. The European Parliament has the final say on international trade agreements. The pilot study did not develop new migration scenarios for Europe. Typically, migration scenario studies identify the most impactful and uncertain factors that will affect migration in the future. The following four scenarios were evaluated, discussed and developed by experts in 15 cities all over Europe. The unity of the EU at 27 is preserved while further cooperation is made possible for those who want. Questions arise about the transparency and accountability of the different layers of decision-making. Women, who represent 70% of the care workforce, continue to suffer from a severe lack of recognition for both their paid and unpaid care work. Debate on the future of the European Union (EU) never abates because the Union is a polity characterized by considerable change in its internal and external environment. It focuses on excellence in R&D and invests in new EU-wide projects to support decarbonisation and digitisation. The EU and Turkey face mounting challenges both in relation to one another and internationally. The scenarios were used to explore policy implications of different political, economic and migration developments for specific thematic areas of EU policymaking: foreign and security policy, labour Please try again. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. In the context of a monetary union devoid of solidarity mechanisms and without supranational political governance, the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact have been (temporarily) suspended—in sharp contrast to the eurozone crisis. The positive agenda of action continues to deliver concrete results, based on a shared sense of purpose. In my view it is strategically the most important aspect in structuring upcoming debates. The Coronavirus Crisis and the Welfare State, Artificial intelligence, work and society, Four scenarios for Europe’s future after the crisis, Anne-Laure Delatte, Michel Husson, Benjamin Lemoine, Éric Monnet, Raul Sampognaro, Bruno Tinel and Sébastien Villemot, Europe’s decarbonisation challenge? On the one hand, the geopolitical and global growth context in which we will progress, and on the other, the ability of European society to move towards new, more sustainable models at a technological, environmental, social and productive level. The post-crisis EU—assuming it survives—could have very different foundations if the questioning of the three pillars continues. While it would obviously have a positive impact on conventional economic indicators (such as gross domestic product) and would reduce bankruptcies and unemployment in the short and medium term, it would have major long-term consequences. 4 FUTURE OF EUROPE SCENARIOS 2016 /2025. The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law may become restricted over time. Decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited. The scenarios are entitled "carrying on," "nothing but the single market," "those who want more do more," "doing less more efficiently," and "doing much more together." 2018-01-19 12:00. public for future EU scenarios.2 It has to be noted, though, that in the aftermath of Brexit the Dutch media have covered the ensuing discussion on the future of Europe 2A more practical reason to not choose the information-and-choice questionnaires method, for example, is the high demand Four future scenarios for the EU in 2030. Seen this way, the third scenario could greatly resemble the first. This scenario would still require the UK to pay a divorce settlement to the EU as part of a withdrawal treaty. Explore the EU Reference Scenario 2016 with interactive graphs. “Nothing but the single market”. The EU’s re-centred priorities mean that differences of views between Member States on new emerging issues often need to be solved bilaterally, on a caseby-case basis. And at what scale—the Schengen area or groups of countries with similar risk levels (Benelux, the Baltic states, the Iberian peninsula), as the European Commission seems to be suggesting? In this report, we briefly present four foresight scenarios for the future of migration in the EU, with 2030 as a future timeframe. Yet the reactions of certain national employer organisations, growing tensions within certain states (and the conflict in the United States between governors and the president) and the bailouts of industrial and service sectors without real social or environmental conditions point in this direction. Dr Sabine Selchow, ARC-Laureate Program in International History, University of Sydney, and Conflict and Civil Society Research Unit, London School of Economics (LSE) - Civil Society in the EU: future scenarios … We suggest here one possible approach that we could define as a ‘walk through the process’ divided in six steps with two important elements. Read the White Paper on the Future of Europe. Our future scenarios for 2040 www.inherit.eu 12. Citizens have more rights derived directly from EU law. A group of Member States decides to cooperate much closer on defence matters, making use of the existing legal possibilities. What kind of Europe will take shape after the coronavirus crisis? Will member states see an enhanced social Europe or a race to the bottom? And while the previous crisis did not allow of any progress towards the supranational governance of the currency, this one will be the last opportunity to do so. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law are upheld. The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project is working together with other Horizon 2020 projects, such as the QuantMig Project, the Hummingbird Project, and the CrossMigration Project, to explore and communicate about core migration issues in Europe and beyond. The first is the partial relocation of production chains and a certain environmental protectionism, which in extremis could have a lot in common with the second, nationalistic scenario. This proves easier for the free movement of capital and of goods, which continues tariff-free, than it does in other areas. Philippe Pochet is general director of the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). politics, economy and employment & labour, by Philippe Pochet on 30th April 2020 @philippepochet. In the absence of a common approach to managing the health crisis, most likely will be the persistence of more or less tight internal borders for a long time. It might only take a little to switch from one to another. The five scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke thinking. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. My life between realities www.inherit.eu 13 Strongly business driven –few big multinational companies compete and offer various products and services to the citizens for a better and healthier living These offers are personalised through big data Collapse scenario And the Commission has repeatedly said that it wants to engage public opinion. In this document, the European Commission (2017) outlined five tentative scenarios for the EU, varying from broad to narrow institutional and political integration, as listed below: “Carrying on”. Digital transformation will bring comprehensive changes for companies. This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case. To understand the White Paper, we must not look at each scenario as such, but rather at the nature of the scenarios, and the choice for scenarios instead of a single grand vision. Extrapolating findings of studies that take different dimensions of EU support as their dependent variable (Boomgaarden et al., 2011; Van Elsas et al., 2016), some people may prefer an intermediate future scenario, where the EU is reformed but not completely dissolved, over more extreme hard or soft scenarios – and different variables will explain these preferences. The second and key factor is reduction of working time. The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. On top of the eurozone crisis, the European economy … Ultimately, a clearer division of responsibilities helps European citizens to better understand what is handled at EU27, national and regional level. Over the course of 2020, repeated outbreaks of Covid-19 in a number of large German meat-processing plants led to renewed public concern about the longstanding labour abuses in this industry. But in which global environment is this set to happen? This book brings together leading experts in European politics and policy to examine social citizenship rights across the European continent in the wake of Brexit. The main outputs from the EU Reference Scenario 2016 are 1. The third scenario is a return to growth at any price, with unfettered catch-up consumption without any consideration for the environment. Four scenarios, widely varying in their social and ecological consequences, are possible. Finally, the relaxation of state-aid restrictions and the rescue of companies in distress will reconfigure what is considered possible and legitimate. The effects of this crisis on the real economy will last for a long time, meaning that Europe will not soon get back to normal. There are different ways of financing budget deficits and state debts, which are bound to explode. In a scenario where there is a consensus on the need to better tackle certain priorities together, the EU27 decides to focus its attention and limited resources on a reduced number of areas. There was an error submitting your subscription. The gap between expectations and delivery starts to close in the countries that want and choose to do more. In full complementarity with NATO, a European Defence Union is created. At its last meeting of the old year in December 2017 the Presidium of CESI adopted a new position paper on priorities for a more social Europe. “Doing less more efficiently”. This scenario calls for negotiating a follow-up agreement that would adapt the existing ACP-EU framework Further progress depends on the capacity to agree related policies and standards. The European Union Focuses on delivering more and faster in selected policy areas, while doing less elsewhere. The fact that this health crisis could be recurrent opens up possibilities for more authoritarian governments, such as in Hungary and Poland, to assert themselves as the guarantors of their citizens’ safety and security. There is no shared resolve to work more together in areas such as migration, security or defence. Thank you very much for your interest! Excel sheets with EU and EU country results The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in these interactive graphs, develope… All news & events. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more. Scenarios are an important tool in mapping possible futures for the Union as they bring underlying trends into focus. The calls of certain governments, such as in the Czech Republic, and sectoral actors to forget the European Green Deal underline the strength of this scenario. This scenario goes hand-in-hand with global fragmentation and a more or less radical ‘deglobalisation’. He is author of À la recherche de l'Europe sociale (ETUI, 2019). There is an active movement towards Flemish independence (scenarios sometimes include and sometimes exclude Brussels), or union with the Netherlands, with the future status of Wallonia and Brussels (the de facto capital of the EU) unclear as viable political states, perhaps producing a unique situation from Scotland and Catalonia. The final scenario involves accelerating the ecological transition and rapidly rethinking our growth model, with a return to public services, common goods and solidarity at the heart of the economy and social affairs. Future 2040 Scenarios. The study ‘The future evolution of civil society in the European Union by 2030’, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) in the framework of the annual study programme for 2017, is in the process of being finalised. The consequences of these seemingly technical choices vary greatly in terms of their fiscal and, manifestly, social impact. Only a collective resolve to deliver jointly on the things that matter will help close the gap between promises on paper and citizens’ expectations. Robust and consistent EU response: This scenario is set against major events experienced in the EU over recent years, such as the Great Recession, the refugee crisis, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU27 steps up its work in fields such as innovation, trade, security, migration, the management of borders and defence. The EU has recently been confronted with a series of crises, e.g. The EU agricultural outlook describes several scenarios, including a slow recovery and a green recovery from 2020. These three pillars are being shaken by the pandemic and they are sure to be at the centre of debates on the future of Europe. So what might this future look like? As regards the free movement of people, the closing once more of national borders has been a highly symbolic trend, demonstrating that ‘other’ Europeans are still considered as potentially dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners. National borders As regards the free movement of people, the closing once more of national borders has been a highly symbolic trend, demonstrating that ‘other’ Europeans are still considered as potentially dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners. Defence and security are prioritised. INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Future Scenarios for the Eurozone 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis SCENARIO TEAM EUROZONE 2020 March 2013 The Eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history: the systemic crisis … These developments have triggered political instability and fuelled … For the longevity of Social Europe we depend on our loyal readers - we depend on you. The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. Earlier this month, the European Commission put out a white paper that envisages five scenarios for the EU by 2025. Now please check your email to confirm your subscription. In both scenarios, changes in supply and demand lead to lower meat and grain prices, while butter, cheese and poultry prices are less affected. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes – the form will follow the function. On 15 February 2018 afternoon Group III held an extraordinary meeting for the presentation of a study promoted in cooperation with the Liaison Group on The future … EU states will have until the end of the year to decide on the future vision of a European Union following a European Commission proposal outlining five broad scenarios. CESI on future scenarios of a social EU. Moreover, are the institutional innovations being adopted temporary or longer-term—is the SURE initiative (supporting short-time work arrangements) the beginning of an EU unemployment-reinsurance system? The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. The functioning of the single market becomes the main “raison d’être” of the EU27. in the economic and migration dimensions. Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market. www.ecdpm.org Exploring scenarios for the future of ACP-EU Cooperation 7 Scenario 1: A revised Cotonou Partnership Agreement beyond 2020 1 What does this scenario entail? Whether we resort to ‘helicopter’ money or ‘coronabonds’ or stick to the European Stability Mechanism—how the recovery is financed and what type of recovery it is—will greatly affect the future. This in turn allows different choices from before. Changes in the law are not sufficient, on their own, to ensure decent working conditions, however. [...] in order to describe future scenarios and to deliver the [...] European Union from problems similar to those which were caused by the gas supply blockade via Ukraine. These three pillars are being shaken by the pandemic and they are sure to be at the centre of debates on the future of Europe. Yet, might the UK's withdrawal be a blessing in disguise? The second key element is the ‘scenario logic’ which constitutes the core of the process. future trajectory of the region: the scenarios do not just spell out what 2025 could look like, they also explain how decisions with far-reaching consequences taken at critical junctures (called game-changers) will shape this future between today and then. Living longer, more productive lives; Smaller, educated workforce; Labour force and population ageing ; Immigration and population ageing; Impact of intra-EU mobility; Impact of brain drain; Girls' education and population growth; Launch event; The report There is far greater and quicker decision-making at EU level. This helps to close the gap between promise and delivery, even if expectations remain unmet in certain domains. The EU27 continues to focus on jobs, growth and investment by strengthening the single market and by stepping up investment in digital, transport and energy infrastructure. In a scenario where the EU27 cannot agree to do more in many policy areas, it increasingly focuses on deepening certain key aspects of the single market. The Reference Scenario - summary of main results 3. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. One element is the ‘decision-focus’ of the scenarios, which means that the process begins and ends not with vision of the future, but with agreement on the strategic decision which the scenarios should be designed to illuminate.